I have been a keen observer of the US Presidential Elections, since Ronald Reagan days, when I was a student in the US. What fascinates me then, was the whole process, which involves primaries for the election of the candidate for each party (Republican and Democrat), and then the eventual face-off between the two candidates from the major parties. Off course, once in a while, you also see independent candidates, like Ross Perot (former Chairman of EDS), and others to join the fray.

I was not attracted to the election on the candidates per se, but how they bring about and debate the issues that are of importance for the people and the public, as well as the stance between the two opposing parties. For those who have observed the US politics realized that the overall political inclinations has been shifting to the “right”, whereby the Republican has moved to the “far right”, and for that matter the Democrat has shifted to the center from a leftist position. In the current Presidential election, it can be clearly seen that it is a fight for the “main stream center”, which McCain is trying to shift from far right to the center, and Obama is moving from left to the center. Whoever wins this “centrist” battleground will be the next President of the United States.

While some of us in Asia are putting our hopes on Obama (against McCain), I would raise my caution as I am always of the opinion that US politics are much deeper than what we can see openly. He is going against a strong tide of “Republican establishments” which has been a clearly dominant force over the last few decades. These forces are well funded, organized, have massive control over the mass media, as well as scores of think-thanks and “experts” as their political machinery. They will never let Obama alone, and if he wins, they will never let him rest easy. Bill Clinton, throughout his tenure has to face this fight almost squarely with them on scores of issues, as well as they threw at him as much garbage as they could. Somehow, Clinton manages to survive, at a cost: he can’t do the reform that he wanted to do by compromising on many things. Therefore, in some way the “far rights” still won the battle, even though publicly Clinton seems to have survived.

The US politics, while have a very highly rhetorical debates, has become more and more of a “staged affair”. This all started during the time of Ronald Reagan, which, historically is proven to be the best “President actor” of all time. Since then, with the advancement of the media, US presidential politics has been an almost “totally media play”. With the far right control over the media, no worthy opponent can topple the Republican Party and their machinery. However, it is interesting that Obama is able to stage a very good fight and it seems that he is winning it. How did he do it?

First of all, Obama’s message of change – and on that he is consistent. Irregardless of what’s being thrown to him or against him, he will bring it back to the same message: that is of change. Second, he relied upon non-traditional media as his source and ways to reach the people (because he knows of its shortfall), and eventually force the mainstream media to “kow-tow” to these alternative media. Third, the overall mood of the US over so many abuses of the pasts, which now concludes (in time for Obama) with the Wall Street mess, confirms and supports what Obama is calling for: change.

So I am quite clear that (barring any foul play): Obama will win hands down against McCain in this November. For those who are interested to have a “forecast” on the winner, you can look at the following website: www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets which tells you up-to-date numbers between Obama and McCain. I was one of the pioneer of this project (called Iowa Electronic Market), which basically creates a “stock market” for the candidates; the prices of “Obama shares” vs. “McCain shares” tells you who is predicted to win and by how much. There are two type of shares created, namely: “vote-share” – which tells you how much “popular votes” each will get (in percentage terms), and “winner-take-all share” – which tells you who will win the Electoral College.

As of today, the share prices are as follows:

Vote Share: Obama = 0.545      McCain = 0.470

Winner Take All: Obama =0.849 McCain = 0.160

So far Iowa Electronic Markets has proven to be correct within a 2.5% error margin; and over the years has outperformed the pollsters in terms of accuracy.

With the message of “Change We Can”, Obama will be the next President of the United States.


Add Yours
  1. Jamie Holts

    You know, I have to tell you, I really enjoy this blog and the insight from everyone who participates. I find it to be refreshing and very informative. I wish there were more blogs like it. Anyway, I felt it was about time I posted, Ive spent most of my time here just lurking and reading, but today for some reason I just felt compelled to say this.

  2. Kin Robles

    Thank you Dr. Hasni. I enjoyed your Obama vs. McCain blog.

    There is much truth in your words. As a pioneer in bringing new media to the U.S. business landscape, I understand the power of old-traditional media.


    Kin Robles

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